What to watch for in men’s Olympic hockey semifinals
After one of the best days of hockey in memory on Wednesday, when three of the four men’s quarterfinal games went to overtime at the Olympics, the stage is set for Friday’s semifinal where we’ll find out who will play for gold on Sunday.
Are we on an inevitable road to renewing the Canadian-American rivalry? Will Finland be able to clinch another medal with a win on Friday, and guarantee they will still be the country with the most medals in NHL Olympic hockey tournaments after 2026? Can Slovakia keep surprising and accomplish something no one predicted?
Here’s what to watch for in the semifinal.
Which goalie will have the best performance?
In the men’s Olympic semifinal we have three bona fide No. 1 NHL goalies and one who has spent most of his season in the AHL, where he ranks 46th in GAA and 47th out of 50 goalies in save percentage. But in a win-or-go-home playoff, where a hot goaltender can easily be the difference no matter which team plays better in any other aspect of the game, any perceivable advantage is on paper only.
Every one of these goalies has something to prove on the biggest stage. These are their Olympics stats so far:
|
NAME |
RECORD |
GAA |
SV% |
|
Connor Hellebuyck |
3-0 |
0.98 |
.958 |
|
Juuse Saros |
3-1 |
1.49 |
.938 |
|
Jordan Binnington |
3-0 |
1.65 |
.922 |
|
Samuel Hlavaj |
2-1 |
2.67 |
.932 |
• Starting with Slovakia, whose weakness coming into the tournament was identified as its netminding. Samuel Hlavaj, who has struggled with the AHL’s Iowa Wild didn’t seem likely to be a star on the rise in this tournament. But you just never know with goalies.
Outside of the game versus Italy, Hlavaj has played every other game for the Slovaks and is fifth in the tournament by save percentage. His best performance was the first game against Finland, in which he made 39 saves en route to a 4-1 upset win. Now it’s big stakes against the Americans: does Hlavaj have the biggest upset of his career in him? Though he’s having a streaky season in North America, Hlavaj “has the ability to steal games when he’s dialled in,” writes our scout Jason Bukala. And, bad news for the Americans: he’s dialled in at this tournament.
• Speaking of the Americans, Connor Hellebuyck is the locked-in starter and a three-time Vezina Trophy winner who also won the Hart Trophy last season. His .958 save percentage and 0.98 goals-against average lead the Olympic tournament, so no worries, right?
The question regarding Hellebuyck is about coming through in the biggest moment. Over his past three trips to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Hellebuyck has an .870 save percentage, and he was the second-best goalie in the 4 Nations final a year ago. Whether it’s here in the semifinal or in a potential gold medal match, can Hellebuyck deliver a couple more masterpieces to bring gold to Team USA, or will this narrative continue to follow him?
• On the other side of the bracket is Team Canada and Jordan Binnington, who is sort of the opposite of Hellebuyck. His big-game performance is not in question after last year’s 4 Nations, and after a couple game-saving stops in the quarterfinal overtime scare against Czechia. But, he’s statistically one of the worst goalies in the NHL this season, so the concern Canadian hockey fans might have is him reverting to the St. Louis Blues version of himself for a game.
If there is a crack in the Canadian armour, it’s rebounds. So far, those have either been gobbled up by Binnington or snuffed out by the defence in front of him. But, no offence to Czechia, Switzerland or France, that becomes a potentially bigger problem against a pesky Finland team, or a more physical and offensively capable American squad. Both teams have big bodies to challenge the net front and make good on the high-danger second chances.
Logan Thompson is one of the NHL’s statistically best goalies this season, but he’ll be on the bench yet again. Binnington’s results have given no reason to start anyone else. But one bad game…
• And finally, Juuse Saros is the only of the four remaining goalies who has played in every one of his country’s hockey games so far. He began the Olympics slowly, with 21 saves on just 25 shots in a 4-1 loss to Slovakia, but rather than panic, the Finns stuck with him instead of going to Kevin Lankinen. Saros had a 15-save shutout of Italy and a 34-save effort in a 4-1 win over rival Sweden in the medal round. In the quarters, Finland fell behind 2-0 in the first period, but Saros stopped every one of the 18 shots he faced the rest of the way and gave his team a chance at the comeback win they managed to pull off.
As we hit the medal round games, Saros is third in save percentage and GAA, better numbers than Binnington. But he’s also a smaller frame, busier in the crease and potentially leaves an opponent with more net to look at. Saros’s peak in the NHL so far is in the past, but he’s more than capable of pulling off an upset.
How much work will Slovakia’s penalty kill have to do?
Slovakia has been shorthanded 17 times so far at the Olympics, the most penalized team overall and far ahead of their semifinal opponent, Team USA (10), as well as the other two teams left standing: Canada (9), Finland (10).
Their penalty kill success rate is 82.35 per cent, fourth best in the event, but being shorthanded too often against the Americans could be lethal. Team USA’s power play success rate is second-best in the tournament at 33.3 per cent.
What is the health status of Sidney Crosby, Sam Bennett, Josh Morrissey?
We still don’t know what Crosby’s health status is, or what percentage he’ll be at if he is put in the lineup. Luke Fox reported that Sam Bennett was too sick to play in the quarterfinal but feels better now, so he may either replace an injured Crosby or step in for someone else. Josh Morrissey hasn’t played since the opener, but hasn’t been ruled out yet.
The fact is, Canada could use all three of these players at their best. Crosby is not only the emotional leader of this team, but centre of the one line that head coach Jon Cooper has not wanted to move away from. The Crosby-Mitch Marner-Mark Stone trio has been a rock, reliable at both ends for Canada, with each having their own big individual moments.
The near-miss against Czechia showed a potential Canadian weakness in not having enough quick puckmovers on the back end. Defence is one of the team’s core strengths and will continue to be, but the transition game went against Canada in the quarters. Finland can challenge that again with pressure and hard forechecking, something the country has been known to do well in the past. If the Canadians can get back Josh Morrissey, he would bring the exact puck-moving ability they need more of, so his return would be well-timed if it comes on Friday.
Who has an advantage in the face-off circle in big moments?
Three of the four quarterfinal games were decided in overtime and as we head to the semis and then final, we shouldn’t be surprised to see more thrilling one-goal games. And when it comes down to that, a faceoff result can be the critical moment when possession is won or lost.
On that note, Team USA have three of the top four players by face-off winning percentage so far: Dylan Larkin (83.3), Vincent Trocheck (68.57) and Brock Nelson (63.33). Their other centre, Auston Matthews, is at 57.14 per cent, which is still eighth-best among all remaining players.
Bo Horvat, Crosby and Connor McDavid are all above 60 per cent for Canada. Nathan MacKinnon has taken the most face-offs for Canada, but has the worst winning percentage of the main four, still a respectable 55.22 per cent. Nick Suzuki, for what it’s worth, has won 11 and lost 11.
Finland has just one player over a 60 per cent success rate at the dot (Erik Haula), while Roope Hintz and Sebastian Aho are a scratch over 50 per cent. Slovakia, meanwhile, has a single centre who has won more than half his draws, with Dalibor Dvorsky at a 52.73 winning percentage.
Can Connor McDavid set a record? Can he achieve a point per period pace?
McDavid’s two assists in the quarterfinal against the Czechs got him to nine in the tournament, setting a new record for helpers in an NHL Olympic tournament. His two goals and nine assists have him at 11 points, which ties that NHL Olympic record, so just one point the rest of the way will set a new one.
But with 11 points in four games, McDavid is just shy of an incredible one-point-per-period pace. He’d need seven points in these last two games to accomplish that feat
— and who’s saying he can’t?
At the same time, 19-year-old Celebrini is second in tournament scoring at nine points
The same final four as 2010: Will anything change this time?
It’s the same four teams left as it was in the 2010 Vancouver Olympics, though the semifinal matchups are different. Sixteen years ago, Canada beat Slovakia 3-2, Team USA beat Team Finland 6-1, and then the Canadians beat the Americans for gold on Sidney Crosby’s all-time goal. Finland earned bronze with a 5-3 win over Slovakia after coming back from a 3-1 deficit in the third.
Will we get the same gold and bronze medal games as we did then? Or will we see an upset in either semifinal?
Brighton's Landon Whitlock learned playoff hockey from state final run
NOVI — Sometimes Landon Whitlock came back to the Brighton hockey bench in the celebration line after contributing to a goal.
Sometimes he came limping back after eating a puck for the team.
Whatever it takes, especially at playoff time.
Whitlock learned what the postseason is all about while playing as a sophomore forward on a veteran team that went to its third consecutive state Division 1 championship game two years ago.
It’s those lessons he’s applied to his own game as a senior leader on one of the hottest teams in Michigan.
Whitlock had a goal and two assists and blocked four shots in the playoff opener for sixth-ranked Brighton, which beat Ann Arbor Pioneer 7-1 in a regional semifinal on Thursday, Feb. 19 at Novi Ice Arena.
“It’s just a Brighton thing to be a dog,” Whitlock said. “It’s what we’re known for is blocked shots. It’s just what we do. It’s just what you do for the team.
“I’m fine with taking one off the leg. It stings for a second, but it’s better than one going in the back of the net and costing us the game.”
Whitlock’s teammates were as excited to greet him back at the bench followed his blocked shots as they were for his first-period goal. In hockey culture, sacrificing the body for the team is revered.
“He just works,” Brighton coach Kurt Kivisto said. “He’s an absolute dog. He does a tremendous job on the penalty kill blocking shots and just grinds. He’s a guy who goes and retrieves pucks and makes things happen on the forecheck. He’s just really, really valuable for our team.”
As a sophomore, he had two goals and three assists in 30 games playing on a team spearheaded by all-state forwards Cam Duffany and Lane Petit.
“He was more of a third-line type of role, go eat minutes and do that dirty work,” Kivisto said. “He’s taken that and elevated his game this year. It’s been awesome to see.”
Whitlock’s points Thursday came when they mattered most, as he contributed to Brighton’s first three goals while Pioneer was flirting with an upset.
It was a 1-1 game until Eddie Wheeler scored with 4:57 left in the second period. That began an onslaught of four goals in a span of 8 minutes and 13 seconds spanning the second and third periods.
Whitlock opened the scoring with 3:10 left in the first period. After Pioneer’s Sean Stone tied it on the power play with 12:47 left in the second, the game settled into a bit of a stalemate until Wheeler broke the tie and Max McKenzie made it 3-1 with 16.4 seconds left in the second.
The Bulldogs broke it open with goals by Connor Duffany and Nic Smith early in the third. McKenzie scored his second goal with 7:39 remaining and Tim Peterson capped the scoring with 1:17 left.
Whitlock was Brighton’s eighth-leading scorer during the regular season with five goals and eight assists in 26 games. He’s picked up the pace late in the season, scoring three goals and six assists in the last seven games.
He credits the uptick in production to being paired with McKenzie and Wheeler later in the season.
“It’s the people I’ve been playing with,” Whitlock said. “I’ve been playing with the right players. Being with them puts me in the right place and in the right spots. I can get the puck and get some points.”
Brighton (17-11) is 12-2 in its last 14 games after losing six in a row. The Bulldogs will seek their sixth consecutive regional championship at 7:45 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 25 against fifth-ranked Northville or Novi at Novi Ice Arena. Brighton beat Northville 1-0 on Dec. 6 and rallied to beat Novi 4-3 in overtime on Jan. 10.
Contact Bill Khan at [email protected]. Follow him on X @BillKhan
This article originally appeared on Livingston Daily: Brighton hockey maintains hot streaks, beats Pioneer in playoff opener
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