At this time of year, I tend to start thinking through what my expectations are for the coming season. Having a base model in my head helps me avoid overreacting to early-season noise. Part of that process includes looking at the AL Central, the main competition the Royals need to beat to reach the playoffs. It is not typically considered a very strong division, as the coastal, big-money teams are in the West or East in both leagues, with the possible exception of the two Chicago teams, who play in big media markets but have not traditionally acted like it.
I’m going to start with the weakest team and work through the other non-Royals clubs before getting to how Kansas City matches up.
Chicago White Sox
AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 0.4% / 1.1%
BP: 0.5% / 1.1%
Both systems agree that the White Sox are going to need some very fortunate bounces to compete for even the last wild-card slot. They have some individually talented players, but there are simply too many holes in the roster to take them seriously as a contender. They don’t really have a unit that qualifies as a strength.
Their rotation features Shane Smith, who had a genuinely nice 2025 season but profiles more as a solid third starter than an Opening Day, top-of-the-rotation arm. After him, there are several back-end types who are really fifth or sixth starters unless Anthony Kay learned something in NPB that unlocked another level, or Erick Fedde rediscovers the weird magic that made him good for that stretch in 2024. Maybe Noah Schultz or Hagen Smith can come up from the prospect ranks and improve things.
The bullpen is very similar. I think Grant Taylor is really good, and there are a few other decent arms, but not enough, and none who are true back-end anchors. Seranthony Domínguez as your seventh-inning guy is probably fine; as your closer, it leaves a lot to be desired. His inconsistency over the years is concerning for that role. The pitching staff is almost certainly going to be in the bottom half of the league.
The offense is not much better. They again have a couple of interesting bats. Colson Montgomery had a very nice debut at age 23. Projection systems don’t believe he can come close to repeating it, but there’s some hope. Kyle Teel is similarly interesting as a catcher who should provide value at the plate. The outfield, outside of Luis Robert Jr., is rough. When Andrew Benintendi (still only 31!?) is hitting in the middle of your lineup, things are probably not going well. This unit is going to need a lot of luck to score enough runs to be competitive.
Cleveland Guardians
AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 5.9% / 13.3%
BP: 5.4% / 9.4%
I still don’t really get how the Guardians did what they did last season, and the projection systems seem to agree. This is a flawed team — especially offensively — that somehow rides its pitching well enough to reach the playoffs on a recurring basis.
They don’t have anyone you’d call a true ace, but Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are both good. Maybe Parker Messick can give them a reliable third option at the top of the rotation, but this is not a scary group. There’s enough depth and competence to be middle-of-the-pack or slightly better, though.
The bullpen has been their strength the last few years and might continue to be. Cade Smith is a beast, though Hunter Gaddis backed up quite a bit last year after his dominant 2024. And of course, there’s no more Clase. I could see a scenario where this ends up below league average, but I’ll give the organization the benefit of the doubt, given its track record of building bullpens. They have eight or so other arms from which they’ll likely cobble together a third and fourth option, plus depth.
The lineup, on the other hand, is just bad. They’ve struggled to score runs for years. José Ramírez and Steven Kwan give them stability, and I think Kyle Manzardo provides a third consistently above-average bat. After that, it’s a lot of wishing. Can they find a way to score enough runs to stay competitive? They may need Travis Bazzana, Cooper Ingle, or maybe Ralphy Velazquez to come up and add a quality bat, but none of them are sure things. (Still love the name Ralphy.)
Minnesota Twins
AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 17.1% / 32.6%
BP: 17.3% / 26.8%
Projection systems consistently seem to love the Twins. And the Twins love disappointing them — at least that’s how it has felt in recent years.
After the fire sale at last year’s deadline, many would assume they have little to no shot, but these probabilities disagree. I think it’s mostly a function of a very good rotation. Pablo López and Joe Ryan make a nice one-two punch. Add quality depth behind them, and you have one of the better starting fives in baseball.
For me, the problems arise in the bullpen. There’s no clear top-end arm anymore. Maybe Taylor Rogers or Justin Topa recaptures some of their previous dominance, but I wouldn’t bet on anyone in this bullpen as a true slam-the-door option. The depth was also thinned out at the deadline. It looks like an inconsistent group.
There are talented hitters. Byron Buxton is very, very good — and we also know he tends to disappear from the lineup. You can realistically hope for 100–110 games of his production. Luke Keaschall had a good 2025 debut and looks like a nice long-term piece, but he’s more of a table-setter than a top-tier bat, especially since that .340 BABIP is unlikely to repeat. Matt Wallner and Ryan Jeffers are solid, and maybe Royce Lewis finally pulls it all together (I sincerely doubt it).
They’ll score some runs, but I doubt they’ll finish in the top half of the league offensively. Left field, shortstop, first base, and DH are all considerable issues that bringing in Josh Bell does not fix. His projections are odd — I’m not sure why systems expect his best season since 2022 at age 33, but they do. One true middle-of-the-order bat is not enough, and there’s always the threat of ownership shedding more payroll.
Detroit Tigers
AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 54.3% / 69.8%
BP: 36.1% / 49.7%
Now we get to the favorites. The Tigers have a lot going for them and have added a couple of large pieces to get even stronger.
Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez might be the best one-two punch in baseball, and a back end of Jack Flaherty, Verlander, and Casey Mize is solid. I have concerns about Verlander, but he really just needs to be serviceable. The Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe injuries reduce their depth, which does hurt, but they’re still positioned to have one of the best rotations in the league.
The bullpen is significantly less intimidating. Will Vest was dominant for stretches last year, but counting on that for a full season feels risky. Any team planning on Kenley Jansen as its closer at this stage has questions. Nothing against Jansen, but last year feels a bit like fool’s gold statistically. Can they get reliable back-end production from Tyler Holton, Kyle Finnegan, and others? It feels like they’ll have a lot of serviceable arms without true top-end dominance. That creates risk — and it contributed to their inability to hold the division late.
The other issue was consistent run scoring. That’s a theme in the Central: solid starting pitching, inconsistent bats. The Tigers probably have the most stable lineup top to bottom. Riley Greene has become a stalwart, and Spencer Torkelson finally put it together to add thump. I believe in those two, and adding Gleyber Torres helps.
It’s the Colt Keith, Dillon Dingler, Wenceel Pérez, and Zack McKinstry group I’m less sold on. Most outperformed their underlying metrics last year. Javier Báez had a strange renaissance before reverting to below-average production. This is a good offense if those supporting pieces hold. If not, it becomes pedestrian. If Kevin McGonigle or Max Clark forces the issue, that would help considerably.
Given the rotation strength, they have to be considered favorites, regardless of BP slightly preferring the Royals.
Kansas City
AL Central/playoff odds
Fangraphs: 22.3% / 39.9%
BP: 40.7% / 55.8%
After looking at everyone else, I’m more optimistic about the Royals than I was initially.
Their starting pitching strength and depth match up well within the division. Injuries are the biggest risk, as we saw last year. Cole Ragans likely needs to return to Cy Young-level form for this team to reach its ceiling, but the rotation should be second or third in the division at worst.
I also like the bullpen more now. The back end of Carlos Estévez, Lucas Erceg, and Matt Strahm is better than any other in the division. I don’t even think that’s particularly arguable, though I do have mild concerns about both Erceg and Estévez. The depth — John Schreiber, Nick Mears, possibly displaced starters, and Luinder Avila focusing solely on relief — gives them the strongest bullpen depth in the Central. This may be the best bullpen KC has had in some time. Hopefully that’s not just spring hopium.
Bobby Witt Jr. is clearly the best player in the division, and Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, and Maikel Garcia give the Royals the strongest top-of-the-lineup core in the Central. The questions come at leadoff and in the back half. There aren’t as many internal solutions as Detroit has, and there aren’t elite prospects waiting in the wings. Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone may determine whether this lineup is good enough. Isaac Collins, Jonathan India, and Lane Thomas matter too — but mostly they just need to be useful and outproduce last year’s black holes.
I’m probably closer to the Fangraphs division odds – around 25% – because I think Detroit is slightly better overall. But I also believe this front office will add if needed, which could push that toward 30–35%. On overall playoff odds, I’m closer to BP.
The AL as a whole feels open. I see only five clearly better teams: the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Mariners. That puts the Royals somewhere near 50% to make the playoffs — and I’m ready for the season to begin.
What do you think?