How does Bo Nix Compare to his fellow ‘Class of 24’ QBs?

In case you forgot, Bo Nix was the sixth of six QBs drafted in the top 12 picks of 2024 which is a record for the number of QBs taken in the first twelve picks of the draft. Two of those QBs have not played too much (Michael Penix and JJ McCarthy), so this article will focus on the four who have started 24 or more NFL regular season games: Nix, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake (lolMVP) Maye. Spencer Rattler was also drafted in 2024 and has started 14 NFL games, but he appears to have lost his spot to undrafted Tyler Shough, who started nine games for the Saints last season.

If we compare the “Big 4” we see that Nix does not lead the group in much beyond avoiding sacks, playing well in the clutch and winning games (which isn’t a QB stat).

Leaving out Rattler, Penix, and McCarthy, Bo Nix was 4th in Y/A, 3rd in TD%, 3rd in INT%, and 4th in yards per carry. However, he is first in a stat that is a team stat, and not a QB stat, WINS. Nix has led the Broncos to 24 regular season wins in 34 starts while Williams has 16 in 34 starts. Daniels has 14 in 24 and Maye has 17 in 29.

That’s enough about wins. Let’s look at game-by-game analysis to see how much, and if the big 4 have progressed or regressed in advanced stats as they get more experience.

Nix 10 game-winning drives in two seasons is pretty amazing. Caleb Williams had 6 in 2025 to get close with 7, but Drake Maye has 2 in 29 starts. Tom Brady has the most in NFL history with 58. PFM is second with 54. Drew Brees and Ben Rapistburger are 3rd with 53. Brady never had more than 5 in a season. In case you have forgotten, all of these QBs were considered “clutch”. Nix 7 is tied with a host of QBs for the second most ever in a regular season. Only Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins have more in a season with 8.

In 2025 in the 4th quarter of close games (one score), here is how the four performed with the rest of the QBs that had 20 or passes in late and close game.

Bo Nix was not very good at passing when it was late and close in 2025. Only Patrick Mahomes threw more late and close picks and Bo’s passer rating of 75.6 was near the bottom of the league. Stafford’s eight TD passes in these situations was crazy good, and a big reason he won the MVP.

Bo Nix was elite in red zone passing in 2025. He had a passer rating of 105.0 and he also ran for 8 conversions on 14 runs (5 TDs and 3 first downs). His red zone passing was the best of the big 4 in 2025. Table below is min 20 RZ passing attempts.

Let’s move to some of more advanced career passing stats for the big 4.

Bo is 3rd in passer rating, on-target%, bad throw%, but has had the least pressure among the big 4. Bo has also had the highest level of passes dropped. So keep that in mind for direct comparisons between them.

Nix only has 6 of his 34 starts where a Bronco receiver did not drop a pass according to PFR.

Apologies to those who are color-blind.

Maye has really benefitted from receivers that don’t drop the ball. Whereas, Nix, the orange line, has consistently been the highest on a game-by-game basis. Imagine what Bo could do with receivers who consistently caught the ball.

Note that Williams line is black in the above graph. He appears to have much more variation in his accuracy. Nix, Maye and Daniels all appear to be fairly consistent with Maye having one really poor stretch. His 17th through 19th games were really bad.

Maye’s success rate started was really ticking up after starting poorly as a rookie. His trend line looks really good right now, but that could change with a few bad games in his 3rd season. The other three QBs have been mostly consistent with their success rates with the exception of three really good games and two really bad games from Nix. Note that this does not factor in how good or bad of a defense that each QB was facing in that game.

Nix has four starts with a success rate less than 30%

1. his first career start against SEA
2. the start against the Jets in the monsoon
3. the loss against the Chargers in 2025
4. the win against the Chargers in 2025

Nix has five starts with a success rate of greater than 55%

Maye has a host of them, but I wonder how much of that is having McDbag’s offense which is great between the 20s and terrible in the red zone. A successful pass gains 40% of the needed yards on first down, 60% of the needed yards on second down and converts on 3rd or 4th down.

Williams only has one green game and Daniels has five like Nix.

In terms of pressure rate, Nix has been the best protected of the four.

Nix has a bunch of games from last season with less than 10% of his dropbacks getting pressure, but he was getting pressured a bunch in the final four games of 2025. It was the first time in his career that he has had four consecutive games with 20% or more pressure.

Bad throw percentage is interesting, but don’t read too much into his 100% bad throw game (he had one pass).

The four actually look fairly close in most things, but I expect Nix to make a jump in his third season with Sean Payton for two reasons. The first is the change to Davis Webb as offensive coordinator. The second is the improvement that Drew Brees made in his third season with SP. Brees had his first season with 500 passing yards, had a career high (at the time) in TD passes with 34, he led the league in completions and passing yards, he had a career low 13 sacks (in a full season), he was second team All-Pro and won offensive player of the year. This was 2008 when the Saints led the NFL in scoring.

So yes I am expecting a jump from Nix in his 3rd season similar to what we saw from Drew Brees. No, Nix is not Brees, few are, but history can tell us that Sean Payton’s offense takes time to internalize, even for future Hall of Fame QBs. Also for those butthurt Bears, Patriots and Commanders fans, your QBs could also make a big jump in their 3rd season, but they don’t have Sean Payton. Also Drake Maye has an offensive coordinator with a terrible track record of developing QBs, and no McDufus does not get credit for “developing” Tom Brady.