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EspañolUFC Mexico showcases the promotion's local talent with a a night heavy on the flyweights and even heavier on major moneyline discrepancies. Atop Saturday's card, hometown hero Brandon Moreno returns in a patchwork main event — the former two-time UFC flyweight champion was originally slated to collide with Asu Almabayev until injury struck. Almabayev was shockingly replaced by Ireland's Lone'er Kavanagh, who now has a massive opportunity to not only climb back into the win column, but also shortcut his way up the division's contender ladder.
In the co-main event, Marlon "Chito" Vera looks to stand his ground in a potential changing-of-the-guard bout against David Martinez.
UFC Mexico couldn't be more loaded with one-sided matchups if it tried. This card is fan service for the Mexican faithful, and while there's nothing wrong with that, we don't have to pretend like any of these fights hold pivotal stakes, because they don't.
👑 UFC Mexico lineup Crown grade: F+ 👑
Betting odds via BetMGM.
125 pounds: Brandon Moreno (-210) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (+175)
The argument for the unranked Kavanagh getting this fight is that most of the top contenders were booked or had already fought Moreno recently. Nonetheless, the pairing remains as illogical as ever.
Oddsmakers are also showing little respect for Moreno, despite him still being slotted as a comfortable favorite here. "The Assassin Baby" heads into the fight less than three months after a stunning TKO defeat to Tatsuro Taira in December. Meanwhile, Kavanagh was knocked out by Charles Johnson in August.
You know what I always say, folks: There are levels to this.
Moreno, 32, maintained his sharp striking prowess throughout the Taira fight until its conclusion. Taira's superior grappling was the X-factor, nullifying the Mexican's traditionally sensational scrambling ability. However, that's just Taira. The dude does that to everyone and has yet to be matched in that department.
Seeing Kavanagh get put away by a striker of Johnson's caliber is majorly concerning in a matchup like this. That's no knock on Johnson, who is solid enough. Moreno has just been around the block and done this dance with the elite of the elite, either putting them away or hanging in wars. His distance kicks will set up his boxing, and any grappling offense from Kavanagh should be defended with relative ease.
This is your patented old-school, short-notice, throwaway main event — and an expected walk in the park for Moreno.
Pick: Moreno
135 pounds: Marlon Vera (+260) vs. David Martínez (-325)
This is one of those classic crossroads fights. Vera is still relatively dangerous yet durable as ever. His kicks and elbows carry venom, and they always sting when the fight drifts into chaos. But “Chito” is as notorious of a a slow-starter as they come, often giving away early rounds while waiting for openings that may never come.
Martínez, meanwhile, is riding momentum and fighting like a man who knows he's nearing another launchpad moment. He’s faster, sharper at range, and far more urgent from the opening bell. The biggest question is whether he can maintain that pace for three rounds without getting dragged into Vera’s grinding, attritional style. Putting away the Ecuadorian has been impossible in his career.
Ultimately, the time is now for Martinez, and the bantamweight division has seemingly passed Vera by.
Pick: Martínez
155 pounds: Daniel Zellhuber (-500) vs. King Green (+375)
This is a brutal stylistic matchup for King Green. Daniel Zellhuber is longer, younger, sharper and far more disciplined at range. His jab and straight shots should land clean all night against Green’s low hands and a shoulder-roll defense that hasn’t aged particularly gracefully.
Green still has craft and experience, but he thrives on rhythmic chaos. Zellhuber doesn’t give you either. He fights tall, controlled and patient, which is a nightmare for someone who needs reads and reactions to get going. Even when battling through the depths of hell, Zellhuber has managed to survive, as seen in his instant classic with Esteban Ribovics, which took top honors as Uncrowned's 2024 Fight of the Year.
Unless Green finds a flash moment early, this has the look of a systematic, one-sided beatdown for the Mexican prospect.
Pick: Zellhuber
125 pounds: Édgar Cháirez (-325) vs. Felipe Bunes (+260)
Expect a scrappy fight while it lasts. Édgar Cháirez thrives in tight exchanges. His sharp counters, opportunistic submissions and willingness to bite down when things get messy make him a consistently fun fighter to watch. He’s not flawless by any means, but he’s composed and dangerous in transitional moments.
Felipe Bunes brings aggression and forward pressure, yet that style can play directly into Cháirez’s hands. If Bunes overextends or gets reckless in scrambles, Cháirez has the instincts to capitalize quickly.
At home and with the cleaner overall skill set, Cháirez feels like the more trustworthy side — especially if this hits the mat.
Pick: Cháirez
125 pounds: Imanol Rodríguez (-450) vs. Kevin Borjas (+340)
Imanol Rodríguez is set up to shine at UFC Mexico. He's the cleaner, tighter and far more structured fighter in his approach. He manages distance well, mixes levels effectively and doesn’t waste motion — which is a problem for someone as hittable as Kevin Borjas.
Borjas is aggressive and willing, but he tends to load up and leave openings behind. Against a composed technician like Rodríguez, that’s a recipe for getting countered repeatedly or grounded and controlled.
Unless Borjas lands something wild early, this feels like Rodríguez dictating terms from start to finish.
Pick: Rodríguez
135 pounds: Santiago Luna (-625) vs. Angel Pacheco (+450)
Showcase fight alert. Well, one of many, as you can see.
Santiago Lune is the sharper striker, the better athlete and far more composed under pressure. Luna fights behind straight shots, keeps his feet under him and doesn’t overextend — all traits that should neutralize Pacheco’s more aggressive, risk-heavy style.
Pacheco will try to make it ugly and chaotic, but that's likely just to open more lanes for Luna to counter cleanly. Over three rounds, the skill gap feels significant.
As with most of these matchups at UFC Mexico, this has the look of a controlled and potentially one-sided performance for the heavy favorite.
Pick: Luna
Preliminary Notes
Despite lengthy, notable winning streaks at bantamweight, Ailin Pérez and Norma Dumont have just been completely overlooked in a women's bantamweight division that's treaded water longer than Wilson in "Castaway." At this rate, it might as well be time to send bantamweight (and heavyweight) on its way out to sea with the long-lost volleyball.
Nonetheless, Pérez's bout against perennial contender Macy Chiasson is the closest on this card in the eyes of the oddsmakers — and stylistically, it should be. At some point, ignoring Pérez will become impossible if she just keeps winning.
In the other women's fight at UFC Mexico, undefeated 21-year-old Mexican prospect Regina Tarin (7-0) makes her promotional debut. The flyweight is filling in for Sofia Montenegro against Ernesta Kareckaitė, so keep an eye out for a potential new rising talent at 125 pounds.
Quick picks:
Ryan Gandra (-650) def. José Daniel Medina (+475)
Ailín Pérez (-185) def. Macy Chiasson (+150)
Cristian Quiñonez (-700) def. Kris Moutinho (+500)
Javier Reyes (-235) def. Douglas Silva de Andrade (+190)
Francis Marshall (-750) def. Erik Silva (+525)
Damian Pinas (-250) def. Wesley Schultz (+200)
Regina Tarin (N/A) def. Ernesta Kareckaitė (N/A)