What if Kristaps Porziņģis doesn’t play for the Warriors again this year?

The Golden State Warriors knew what they were signing up for when they flipped disgruntled wing Jonathan Kuminga and veteran shooter Buddy Hield to the Atlanta Hawks at the trade deadline for former All-Star big man Kristaps Porziņģis. More pertinently, they knew what they were not getting.

There’s no questioning Porziņģis’ star talent. When he made the All-Star team back in 2017-18 as a star-in-the-making 22-year old, he averaged 22.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per game, while shooting 39.5% from three-point range and playing tremendous defense.

Eight years and five teams later, Porziņģis remains roughly the same player when he’s on the court. In that All-Star campaign, his per-100 possessions stats were 34.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks, with 39.5% shooting from deep; in the last three seasons, in which he’s been salary-dumped twice, those stats are 33.6 points, 11.6 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, and 38.8% from distance.

The issue, as has been well documented, is the on-court time. Porziņģis played 72 games as a rookie and 66 games in his second year. In the nine years since, he’s yet to hit that mark again, while playing fewer than 50 games in five of those seasons.

That includes last year, when he played just 42 games for the Boston Celtics, and this year, where he’s suited up just 18 times for the Hawks and Warriors.

But again: the Warriors knew this. Anyone with access to the internet and 30 seconds to spare can quickly find out Porziņģis lack of availability. And needless to say, that availability isn’t likely to get any better. Athletes usually don’t get healthier in their 30s, and that’s doubly true for those who are numerous inches taller than seven feet. And then, of course, there’s his controversial POTS diagnosis, which Steve Kerr made the mistake of publicly disputing a few days ago, before backtracking with his tail tucked between his legs.

So the Warriors can’t be surprised that Porziņģis hasn’t been readily available to them for the first month of his Golden State employment. But it does put the team in a little bit of a conundrum: what do they do if he doesn’t play again this season, or if he only plays a small handful of games?

Porziņģis has only played once since the trade, when he logged 17 minutes against the Celtics on February 19. He’s missed five straight games since then with an illness that Kerr has called “mysterious,” and on Thursday that number will rise to six. He is making progress, though, as he’s accompanying the Dubs on their three-game road trip, meaning there’s hope that he’ll play on Saturday against the Oklahoma City Thunder, or on Monday against the Utah Jazz. But with only 20 games remaining after tomorrow’s absence, it’s fair to wonder just how many times he’ll get on the court for Golden State before the offseason begins.

And that certainly matters. The Warriors have, internally at least, shifted their attention to next season. While they’ll certainly make the play-in tournament and quite possible the playoffs, they’re not going to make a deep run with Jimmy Butler III injured and Steph Curry hobbled. Though it’s only early March, the goal now is to start building a strong enough team for 2026-27 that when they welcome Butler back in January or February, they look like a contender.

It seems likely that the Warriors made the deadline deal with the thought of re-signing Porziņģis when he reaches free agency this summer. It certainly wasn’t a sure thing — it wasn’t a trade-and-extend situation like with Butler a year prior — but it’s hard to imagine the Dubs making such a trade if they weren’t at least considering Porziņģis as a multi-year fit.

But it’s hard to see the Warriors committing to any sort of substantive contract with Porziņģis without seeing him on the court. The talent is both known and endless, of course, but that’s not good enough, especially with the health concerns. They need to see how he operates in Kerr’s offensive system, especially next to Curry. They need to see if he can make the right reads, if he can make them quickly enough, and if he’s a willing passer after making those reads. It’s crucial that they get a feel for his defensive fit alongside Draymond Green.

If he doesn’t play, the Warriors can’t get those data points. And if they don’t have those data points, it’s hard to see how they can feel comfortable giving him anything other than a small, short-term deal when the summer rolls around.

The good news (for Golden State, at least; not so much for Porziņģis) is that he’s unlikely to garner a huge contract like in prior seasons. Porziņģis is finishing up a two-year, $60 million deal, which followed a five-year, $158 million contract, and he’s not going to be touching those numbers. But his contract offers still might be more lucrative than some might think; he’s definitely one of the most mysterious free agents set to hit the market.

Golden State needs a big man, or possibly two. Trayce Jackson-Davis is gone, and Al Horford’s status is up in the air: he has a player option for next year, but it’s unclear if he’ll exercise it, return to free agency, or retire. Regardless, Porziņģis is an intriguing fit for the Warriors over the summer, and potential contract offers are surely something that Mike Dunleavy Jr. and the front office are already mulling over.

But the health situation makes Porziņģis a cautious buy, and that caution gets turned up to 11 if the Warriors don’t get to see how he looks on the court with his teammates and their system. No one will envy Dunleavy if he enters the offseason having seen less than 100 minutes of Porziņģis on the court.

Hopefully that doesn’t end up being the case.