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Spring Training is the time of the year where players knock off the frost from the offseason and prepare for the 162 games marathon that is the regular season. For hitters, it means getting used to seeing big league velocity and breaking balls, as well as getting live fielding reps, and for pitchers it means tinkering with new pitches and refining old ones. While the majority of baseball fans understand that stats during Spring Training don’t necessarily matter all that much, it can still be difficult to not overreact when a player is struggling, especially very close to Opening Day.
An example of a player who currently has the Nationals fanbase anxious is Dylan Crews, who went 0-2 with 2 strikeouts and an error in last nights game to bring him to 1-7 on the spring. To some, this start to the spring for Crews isn’t worth discussing, as he could be working on any number of things to improve his approach for the season, which means some hiccups now. For others, this start is concerning because it is a continuation of the struggles we’ve seen from Crews for quite some time against big league pitching.
So, what numbers that come from Spring Training should fans pay attention to, and which ones should they just throw out? It’s important first to understand that early in the spring, especially in a year like this one for the Nationals where it’s an entirely new coaching staff, players are going to struggle.
Stars like James Wood and CJ Abrams aren’t going to be hitting at their usual clip for a few weeks or so, and that’s because they’re likely being challenged by this new coaching staff to try new things at the plate, such as a more refined plate approach for Abrams or pulling more fly balls for Wood. In general, it’s best to just ignore statistical performance in Spring Training, as there is no proof of any significant correlation to regular season success, but especially this spring, when every player has something new they are attempting to add or change in their game.
What fans should care about during games this spring is for players to make sharp improvements in categories such as exit velocity or metrics, as those are quantifiable ways to show an improvement in their game which could translate to the rest of the year. A recent example of this is Ben Rice, first baseman for the New York Yankees, who put himself on the radar last Spring Training by eclipsing his previous career high exit velocity multiple times in one spring.
Whether it was by adding strength to his frame or a mechanical adjustment, this boost gave the Yankees the confidence to make him their Opening Day first baseman, and he’s done nothing but rake since for them, with one of the cleanest batted ball profiles in the sport.
Pitching wise, fans should be on the lookout for pitchers adding new pitches to their arsenals or making velocity or movement improvements to their other ones, as those are skills which could translate to regular season action, unlike their ERA in those spring outings. An example of this would be to watch out for Cade Cavalli and his new sweeper, which he did not debut quite yet in his first, or for another Nat to come out and add a few more MPH on their fastball than they’d previously had.
If there’s one piece of advice I could give, it would be to not worry too much about how players are performing over the course of the next month. One month of games where these hitters take 2 at bats or starters pitch 2 innings is not a large enough sample size to draw any conclusions from, especially when almost all these players are trying new things that they hope to incorporate into their game come April. Leave the overreactions for Opening Day, and enjoy baseball being back for the next few weeks.